Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 37.707975 41.089494 44.847416 49.377210 54.750527 61.002166 68.951677
2025-07-27 34.159564 38.871468 44.536318 52.024732 61.959447 75.178688 95.093708
2025-08-03 31.577785 36.909996 43.649880 53.133601 66.784101 87.002337 122.503261
2025-08-10 29.405841 35.032510 42.407615 53.287288 70.001203 97.148836 152.397563
2025-08-17 27.176430 32.783123 40.311503 51.782631 70.244093 102.401214 176.462267
2025-08-24 25.335625 30.861379 38.423420 50.250167 70.033999 106.659669 201.567282
2025-08-31 24.828523 30.692433 38.954189 52.415322 76.397538 125.736523 286.979106
2025-09-07 23.476417 29.224810 37.437755 51.091322 76.208686 130.911159 337.364807
2025-09-14 22.344461 27.991285 36.161774 49.998057 76.229549 136.631998 403.478116
2025-09-21 21.006329 26.384106 34.206610 47.557498 73.198205 133.713146 422.158844
2025-09-28 20.289711 25.641455 33.523875 47.229663 74.388723 142.553648 543.728092
2025-10-05 20.360933 26.052340 34.650298 50.188742 83.122895 178.428934 1278.047434
2025-10-12 19.382039 24.972650 33.540401 49.374293 84.322513 195.357049 2916.832965
2025-10-19 19.101161 24.951011 34.176873 52.026527 95.004068 265.980402 NaN
2025-10-26 18.576081 24.502149 34.042330 53.135369 102.338124 342.770865 NaN
2025-11-02 17.954168 23.851908 33.492596 53.289066 107.131034 424.906856 NaN
2025-11-09 17.146743 22.854839 32.252109 51.784324 106.318492 462.843424 NaN
2025-11-16 16.405851 21.925773 31.065655 50.251775 104.997324 497.074788 NaN
2025-11-23 16.239779 21.915535 31.513365 52.417051 117.300346 829.013675 NaN
2025-11-30 15.627595 21.138712 30.505783 51.092977 116.386093 936.305797 NaN
2025-12-07 15.089292 20.460090 29.637211 49.999651 116.078542 1090.631606 NaN
2025-12-14 14.415802 19.531454 28.257495 47.558961 109.724193 977.456425 NaN
2025-12-21 14.046764 19.096449 27.774647 47.231109 112.000816 1284.559053 NaN